NEW: 538 has launched our new interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential election.
They show incumbent Pres. Biden and former Pres ... Show more
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally - ABC News
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally - ABC News
One of the country's most important battleground states, Pennsylvania, has a primary election on Tuesday.
The state's most high-profile contested primaries ... Show more
4 House primaries to watch in Pennsylvania - ABC News
4 House primaries to watch in Pennsylvania - ABC News
Conservative populists in the Republican Party might have you believe that there aren't two major parties in the United States ... Show more
The far right claims there's a 'uniparty' in Washington. Reality suggests otherwise. - ABC News
The far right claims there's a 'uniparty' in Washington. Reality suggests otherwise. - ABC News
Jury selection began Monday in Donald Trump's New York hush money case, the first of the former president's four criminal trials ... Show more
What the polls say about Trump's hush money trial - ABC News
What the polls say about Trump's hush money trial - ABC News
Quick Glance: Twelve Jurors Seated in Trump's Hush Money Trial
- A jury of 12 individuals was empaneled on Thursday in the landmark hush money trial of former President Donald Trump, bringing the proceedings closer to opening arguments and the commencement of weeks filled with compelling testimonies.
- The upcoming trial is anticipated to present unfavorable testimonies regarding Trump's personal life pre-presidency, including accusations of manipulating business records to suppress narratives in the final days of the 2016 election surrounding his intimate relationships.
- Central to the trial is a payment of $130,000 made by Cohen just before the 2016 election to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, aimed at preventing her allegations of a sexual encounter with Trump from being publicized in the campaign's final stretch.
- The selection of the jury holds paramount significance in any criminal proceeding, particularly so when the accused is a former president and the presumed Republican candidate. Potential jurors have undergone extensive scrutiny concerning their online presence, personal backgrounds, and political stances as legal representatives and the judge meticulously scrutinize for partialities that could compromise their impartiality.
One reason that governors are so consistently well-liked across regional and partisan divides is the simple fact that they are not federal officials ... Show more
Americans really love their governors - ABC News
Americans really love their governors - ABC News
Does it matter that Democrats are raising more money than Republicans?: 538 breaks down the latest presidential, Senate and House fundraising reports.
abcnews.go.com/538/matter-democrats-raising-money-republicans/story
It's really hard to change Electoral College rules: Nebraska Republicans are only the latest to try and fail.
abcnews.go.com/538/hard-change-electoral-college-rules/story
The less you vote, the more you back Trump: A new poll suggests it's Republicans who should be rooting for higher turnout.
abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story
Government action like student loan relief is a relatively easy way to address one of voters' biggest concerns — the increasing cost of living — by erasing a ... Show more
Biden has forgiven billions in student loans. Voters may not have noticed. - ABC News
Biden has forgiven billions in student loans. Voters may not have noticed. - ABC News
Quick Glance: Biden Seeks Student Debt Relief
- The Biden administration unveils plans to erase student debt for millions of Americans to fulfill a 2020 presidential promise.
- The proposed new program aims to provide targeted relief to specific groups of borrowers, including long-term debt holders and those in financial distress.
- Over 25 million borrowers are set to benefit from up to $20,000 in interest cancellation, with automatic relief planned for eligible borrowers.
- In addition to these reliefs, long-term borrowers and those experiencing financial hardships will also receive assistance, with the debt relief process expected to take some time.
During the 2022 midterm elections, abortion proved to be a defining issue, and many Democrats are banking on it remaining one in the 2024 election ... Show more
Do Americans agree with Trump on abortion? - ABC News
Do Americans agree with Trump on abortion? - ABC News
This Week : EXCLUSIVE: Chef José Andrés to Martha Raddatz after Israeli airstrikes killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers:
“This doesn't seem anymore a ... Show more
Chef José Andrés and White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby Sunday on “This Week” with Co-Anchor Martha Raddatz - ABC News
Chef José Andrés and White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby Sunday on “This Week” with Co-Anchor Martha Raddatz - ABC News
NEW: The FiveThirtyEight Swing-O-Matic is an interactive tool that allows you to play around with how different parts of the electorate might vote ... Show more
See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election - ABC News
See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election - ABC News
Choosing a No. 2 is a big decision — so, unsurprisingly, campaigns tend to take their time making it. Since 1972, when the modern presidential primary era ... Show more
When will Trump make his VP pick? - ABC News
When will Trump make his VP pick? - ABC News
According to FiveThirtyEight's averages, only 43% of Americans have a favorable opinion of former Pres. Trump, while 53% have an unfavorable opinion ... Show more
Have Americans ever hated two candidates as much as Biden and Trump? - ABC News
Have Americans ever hated two candidates as much as Biden and Trump? - ABC News
How worried should we be about AI-generated fakery this election? In an attempt to get out in front of the problem, state legislators have been introducing and ... Show more
States are cracking down on deepfakes ahead of the 2024 election - ABC News
States are cracking down on deepfakes ahead of the 2024 election - ABC News
Could a Republican win a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland? Usually, the answer would be no: The state is one of the bluest in the country ... Show more
Could Larry Hogan turn a blue Senate seat red in Maryland? - ABC News
Could Larry Hogan turn a blue Senate seat red in Maryland? - ABC News
8 people who could be Trump's VP pick: Tim Scott and Kristi Noem headline 538's latest vice presidential draft.
abcnews.go.com/538/8-people-trumps-vp-pick/story
House members seem to really hate their jobs: More and more are cutting their congressional careers off early.
abcnews.go.com/538/house-members-hate-jobs/story
Will RFK Jr. and third-party contenders even make the ballot in November?: A variety of state-by-state rules stand in their way.
abcnews.go.com/538/rfk-jr-party-contenders-make-ballot-november/story
How IVF and abortion access could shape the 2024 election: Plus, polls on Biden and Trump job approval and college athlete unionization.
abcnews.go.com/538/ivf-abortion-access-shape-2024-election/story
Have your student loans been forgiven? We want to hear from you.: We're interviewing people impacted by Biden's student loan forgiveness programs.
abcnews.go.com/538/student-loans-forgiven-hear/story
In 2024, the GOP once again has a great chance to flip the Senate — if they pick their nominees wisely this time.
On Tuesday ... Show more
8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California - ABC News
8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California - ABC News
Despite the challenges facing the industry, polls remain as accurate as ever. But that doesn't mean that polls taken eight months before Election Day are ... Show more
Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up - ABC News
Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up - ABC News
Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics?: What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
abcnews.go.com/538/gen-care-viral-tiktok-politics/story
Once in the Senate, Kyrsten Sinema frustrated many Democrats by opposing changes to the chamber's filibuster rules that might have paved the way for the ... Show more
How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race - ABC News
How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race - ABC News
There is a voting bloc in America that is a growing share of the population, is reliably overrepresented in the electorate ... Show more
LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters - ABC News
LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters - ABC News
Biden’s State of the Union address won’t make or break his campaign: Historically, the speech hasn't advanced the president's popularity or agenda.
abcnews.go.com/538/bidens-state-union-address-wont-make-break-campaign/story
Though its ending seemed to confirm former Pres. Trump's juggernaut status within the GOP, Nikki Haley's unsuccessful campaign may have both illuminated the ... Show more
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/MuwDzO
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/MuwDzO
Pres. Biden will take the speaker’s dais and deliver his third State of the Union address at a pivotal moment for him. His average approval rating is just 38 ... Show more
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/qUeSid
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/qUeSid
Because Nikki Haley continued to contest the race until Super Tuesday, the competitive period of this year's GOP contest ended up falling short of setting any ... Show more
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trib.al/ywCyEbf
Quick Glance: Nikki Haley's Supporters' Impact on Election Outcome
- Nikki Haley ends failed White House bid with warning to Donald Trump.
- Haley's voters have significant influence on the election.
- Experts identify different categories within Haley's voter base.
- Undecided voters could play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.
538 is tracking how former Pres. Trump and Nikki Haley do, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.
LIVE SUPER TUESDAY UPDATES: trib.al/KeHeLx9
If there is suspense in the presidential race on Tuesday, it's not about who is going to win the most states or delegates — it's about whether former Pres ... Show more
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/BYsVwi
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/BYsVwi
Not only will more than a dozen states hold presidential primaries on March 5, but five of those states will also hold primaries for downballot races ... Show more
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five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/VOGu7Q
Next week, 15 states plus American Samoa are holding primary elections on Super Tuesday, the busiest day in the primary calendar in presidential election years ... Show more
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five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/PezStb
At least 100,000 Democrats in Michigan voted for “uncommitted,” a protest vote driven in large part by dissatisfaction with Pres ... Show more
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trib.al/zwSGh38
538 has released another entry in our poll-tracking universe: down-ballot primary polling averages.
These trackers aggregate publicly available surveys ... Show more
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five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/W23xz0
Two years into the war, American support for Ukraine is down: Plus, polls on Black History Month, the Supreme Court and more.
abcnews.go.com/538/years-war-american-support-ukraine/story
South Carolina 2024 Republican primary results: Trump projected to beat Haley, extending winning streak
abcnews.go.com/Politics/south-carolina-2024-republican-primary-results/story
Quick Glance: Biden triumphs in Michigan despite Gaza protest vote
- Despite a significant protest vote over his stance towards the war in Gaza, President Joe Biden is expected to win the Democratic primary in Michigan comfortably.
- Activists have been urging Democrats in recent weeks to vote 'uncommitted', with tens of thousands following through.
- The US, as an ally of Israel, has faced criticism within Biden's own party for providing substantial military aid.
- Michigan, a crucial swing state with the largest Arab-American population, has shown decreased support for Biden due to his backing of Israel during the Gaza military campaign.
As a former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley surely hoped a strong home-state showing would boost her chances for the Republican nomination ... Show more
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/bIOshd
five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/bIOshd
Quick Glance: Nikki Haley Persists Despite Tough Polls
- Difficult polls in her home state and consecutive losses to Trump spark speculation of her potential withdrawal.
- In Greenville, South Carolina, she declares: "I'm not giving up."
- Amid applause, Ms. Haley asserts: "I refuse to quit."
- South Carolina primary is on Saturday, with Trump aiming for a decisive victory to solidify his lead.
Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.: Leadership fights have roiled the GOP in Michigan, Arizona and Georgia.
abcnews.go.com/538/swing-state-republican-parties-chaos-matter-november/story
When it comes to predicting the 2024 election, it’s choose your own adventure. Republicans can point to national polls finding their likely nominee ... Show more
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five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/J55DWe
Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?
abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/redistricting-updates-2024-maps/analyzing-north-carolinas-proposed-congressional-maps-104144373
A new cadre of Trump-loyalist party leaders, in many cases propelled into power based on their defense of the disinformation that former Pres ... Show more
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trib.al/zmlkuYh
You may find yourself wondering, what was the point of it all? Why did so many serious politicians (read: not the fringe candidates) spend all the time ... Show more
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five-thirty-eight.visitlink.me/1pamwY
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